Coronavirus and the forecast of change

Understanding exponential change

  • People who work with exponential curves, such as tech investors, tended to have brains that said “A LOT.” So did people who lived through the SARS epidemic in Asia. They took COVID seriously. If you have never seen one of these curves in action, it is easy to say “not much.” Donald Trump pandered to the “not much” crowd.
  • Some people pointed out that a successful response is one where everyone accuses you of overreacting. If you are successful in avoiding “A LOT”, then you get “not much.”

Understanding sustained change

Social Adaptation

Chart from Derrick VanGennap and EndCoronavirus.org

Protecting old people

Treatment

  • Doctors are sharing tactics, evaluating whether they should use ventilators, or just oxygen, or place sick patients on their stomachs, etc.
  • They are getting better at preventing transmission inside hospitals, and they are getting more personal protective equipment for hospital staff.
  • Pharma companies are running dozens of trials to find drugs that will reduce the severity of the disease, and some of them are getting positive results.
  • We may find existing drugs that improve symptoms and survival. For example, a report from Mount Sinai today today shows evidence that commonly available anticoagulants can significantly increase survival.

Natural immunity

Vaccines

How it adds up

Financial and investment considerations

Place your bets

  • Regression to the mean. In this scenario, when people are confident that they can avoid the disease, we will go back approximately to where we were in 2019.
  • Financial crisis. These are the unpredictable, exponential-style effects of a narrow set of financial trends, either deflation, or inflation.
  • Cumulative change. These are additive effects of a broad range of changes that were unleashed when COVID broke supply chains and vested interests that were holding us in the economic pattern of 2009–2019.

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Software entrepreneur/engineer. Building dollar DeFi at Maxos. Previous startups include Assembla, PowerSteering Software, SNL Financial.

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Andy Singleton

Andy Singleton

Software entrepreneur/engineer. Building dollar DeFi at Maxos. Previous startups include Assembla, PowerSteering Software, SNL Financial.

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